How likely is a crocodile attack?, In terms of comparative risk, Australians should worry more about climbing their ladders.The shocking news of a fatal crocodile attack in Australia’s Northern Territory has put crocs at the top of the news this week.
But exactly how common are these attacks, and which activities put you most at risk?
The most comprehensive review of croc attacks I am able to find is a 2005 study in the journal Wilderness & Environmental Medicine, titled: Crocodile Attack in Australia: An Analysis of Its Incidence and Review of the Pathology and Management of Crocodilian Attacks in General. The study revises other journal articles, news items and medical reports to put together a complete picture of attacks in Australia.
The wild crocodile population has increased from an estimated 3,000-5,000 in 1971, to 75,000 in 2000. The increase in population is due to crocs gaining protection from hunters in 1971.
As both the human and crocodile populations have increased, so too have attacks, according to the study:
1971-1980 0.5
1981-1990 2
1991-2000 2.2
2001-2004 3.8
Attacks occurred on average 0.5 times per year in the period 1971-80, and 3.8 times per year in 2001-04. The average for fatal attacks is 0.5 per year in 2001-04, a very slight increase on 0.4 in 1971-80, and down from the high of 0.8 per year in 1981-90.
In total, from 1971 to 2004, there were 62 attacks in Australia. The Northern Territory accounted for 62.9% of these. Updated figures from the NT Department of Land and Resources show 62 attacks in the NT overall up to 2013, 18 of those being fatal.
While there has been a large increase in attacks overall, in context a crocodile strike is still a very rare occurrence. For example, in 2011, you'd have more to worry about from the common ladder – 34 people died as a result of falling from a ladder, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and no one died from a crocodile attack. The number of fatal attacks also hasn't increased significantly, despite the large increases in both the human and crocodile population since 1971.
The crocodile attack study also lists the activities people were engaged in at the time of the attack. Not surprisingly, the bulk (81%) of attacks occurred when people were either swimming, wading, or at the water's edge.
Ten percent of attacks occurred when people were in or around boats. One incident in particular is noted by the authors:
"A 5.1m-long male saltwater crocodile (named Sweetheart) attacked the propellers of the outboard motors of a number of boats, overturning them and their occupants but never attacking the people in the water. It is thought that Sweetheart was probably reacting to the sound of the propellers, which he may have mistaken for another crocodile within his territory."
About 8.5% of attacks occurred on land, including two instances of people being attacked in their tents, one attack listed as "near crocodile nest", one listed as “sleeping near water”, and one as “on beach”.
It's interesting to note that people familiar with northern Australia are more likely to be the victim of an attack than tourists. Almost all attacks (95%) have involved locals or people who regularly visit the north and should have been aware of the potential danger from crocs. Most victims – 75% – were male.
And while some people support a crocodile cull in certain areas, with the aim of reducing attacks, Dr Grahame Webb, one of the leading crocodile researchers in Australia (and author of the paper I've been citing), says a cull won't reduce attacks, and may even exacerbate them.
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